Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 11:00am CT · Bryant-Denny Stadium · Tuscaloosa, AL · ABCFinal
ECU
East Carolina Pirates · American · 0-1 · Away
FPI -4.6 · rank 84 · No CFBD row
+28.5 (-120)
+2000
#8 ALA
Alabama Crimson Tide · SEC · 1-0 · Home
FPI 22.3 · rank 7 · No CFBD row
-28.5 (+100)
-6500
Market vs model
Spread
ALA -28.5
ALA -28.5 (+100)
ECU +28.5 (-120)
ECU +28.5 (-120)
Model
ALA -29.4
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ALA
ALA -6500 · ECU +2000
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- ALA rating 22.3, ECU rating -4.6.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to ALA.
- Predicted margin is ALA by 29.4.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 29.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap 26.9; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is ALA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
ECU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
ALA
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 29.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap 26.9; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.