Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 6:30pm CT · Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS · ESPNUFinal
ULM
UL Monroe Warhawks · Sun Belt · 0-1 · Away
FPI -22.6 · rank 135 · No CFBD row
+28.5 (-115)
+1600
#24 MSST
Mississippi State Bulldogs · SEC · 1-0 · Home
FPI 14.1 · rank 22 · No CFBD row
-28.5 (-105)
-4000
Market vs model
Spread
MSST -28.5
MSST -28.5 (-105)
ULM +28.5 (-115)
ULM +28.5 (-115)
Model
MSST -39.2
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
MSST
MSST -4000 · ULM +1600
Total 54.5 — no O/U pick
Total 54.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- MSST rating 14.1, ULM rating -22.6.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to MSST.
- Predicted margin is MSST by 39.2.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 39.2. No market line yet. (Rating gap 36.7; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is MSST, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
ULM
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
MSST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 39.2. No market line yet. (Rating gap 36.7; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.