Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 2:30pm CT · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX · ESPNFinal
TXST
Texas State Bobcats · Pac-12 · 0-1 · Away
FPI -4.9 · rank 86 · No CFBD row
+29.5 (-108)
+2200
#1 TEX
Texas Longhorns · SEC · 1-0 · Home
FPI 28.1 · rank 2 · No CFBD row
-29.5 (-112)
-8000
Market vs model
Spread
TEX -29.5
TEX -29.5 (-112)
TXST +29.5 (-108)
TXST +29.5 (-108)
Model
TEX -35.5
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
TEX
TEX -8000 · TXST +2200
Total 61.5 — no O/U pick
Total 61.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- TEX rating 28.1, TXST rating -4.9.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to TEX.
- Predicted margin is TEX by 35.5.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 35.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 33; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is TEX, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
TXST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
TEX
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 35.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 33; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.