Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 19 · 4:15pm CT · Bryant-Denny Stadium · Tuscaloosa, AL · ESPN2Final
FSU
Florida State Seminoles · ACC · 1-2 · Away
FPI 7.8 · rank 39 · No CFBD row
+18.5 (-108)
+800
#8 ALA
Alabama Crimson Tide · SEC · 3-0 · Home
FPI 22.3 · rank 7 · No CFBD row
-18.5 (-112)
-1350
Market vs model
Spread
ALA -18.5
ALA -18.5 (-112)
FSU +18.5 (-108)
FSU +18.5 (-108)
Model
ALA -17
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ALA
ALA -1350 · FSU +800
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- ALA rating 22.3, FSU rating 7.8.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to ALA.
- Predicted margin is ALA by 17.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 17. No market line yet. (Rating gap 14.5; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is ALA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
FSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
ALA
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 17. No market line yet. (Rating gap 14.5; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.