Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 19 · 6:00pm CT · Memorial Stadium · Columbia, MO · SECN+Final
TROY
Troy Trojans · Sun Belt · 2-1 · Away
FPI -6 · rank 95 · No CFBD row
+26.5 (-112)
+1700
#19 MIZ
Missouri Tigers · SEC · 3-0 · Home
FPI 10.5 · rank 32 · No CFBD row
-26.5 (-108)
-4500
Market vs model
Spread
MIZ -26.5
MIZ -26.5 (-108)
TROY +26.5 (-112)
TROY +26.5 (-112)
Model
MIZ -19.1
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
MIZ
MIZ -4500 · TROY +1700
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- MIZ rating 10.5, TROY rating -6.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to MIZ.
- Predicted margin is MIZ by 19.1.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 19.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 16.6; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is MIZ, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
TROY
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
MIZ
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 19.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 16.6; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.