Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00pm CT · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX · SECN+Final
UTSA
UTSA Roadrunners · American · 2-1 · Away
FPI -1.7 · rank 76 · No CFBD row
+29.5 (-108)
+1800
#1 TEX
Texas Longhorns · SEC · 3-0 · Home
FPI 28.1 · rank 2 · No CFBD row
-29.5 (-112)
-5000
Market vs model
Spread
TEX -29.5
TEX -29.5 (-112)
UTSA +29.5 (-108)
UTSA +29.5 (-108)
Model
TEX -32.3
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
TEX
TEX -5000 · UTSA +1800
Total 58.5 — no O/U pick
Total 58.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- TEX rating 28.1, UTSA rating -1.7.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to TEX.
- Predicted margin is TEX by 32.3.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 32.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap 29.8; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is TEX, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
UTSA
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
TEX
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 32.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap 29.8; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.