Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 26 · 6:45pm CT · Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS · SEC Network6:45pm CT
#19 MIZ
Missouri Tigers · SEC · 3-0 · Away
FPI 10.5 · rank 32 · No CFBD row
+6.5 (-112)
+195
#24 MSST
Mississippi State Bulldogs · SEC · 3-0 · Home
FPI 14.1 · rank 22 · No CFBD row
-6.5 (-108)
-238
Market vs model
Spread
MSST -6.5
MSST -6.5 (-108)
MIZ +6.5 (-112)
MIZ +6.5 (-112)
Model
MSST -6.1
Edge 0.4 pts MIZ
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
MSST
MSST -238 · MIZ +195
Total 58.5 — no O/U pick
Total 58.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- MSST rating 14.1, MIZ rating 10.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to MSST.
- Predicted margin is MSST by 6.1.
- Edge is 0.4 points toward MIZ.
- Edge 0.4 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 3.6; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is MSST, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
MIZ
- Wvs TROY 27-17 · Sat, Sep 19
- W@ KU 38-21 · Fri, Sep 11
- Wvs UAPB 54-14 · Thu, Sep 3
- Lvs UVA 13-7 · Sat, Dec 27
- W@ ARK 31-17 · Sat, Nov 29
MSST
- W@ SC 41-34 · Sat, Sep 19
- W@ MINN 38-13 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs ULM 62-13 · Sat, Sep 5
- Lvs WAKE 43-29 · Fri, Jan 2
- Lvs MISS 38-19 · Fri, Nov 28
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Edge 0.4 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 3.6; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.