Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Fri, Oct 2 · 11:00pm CT · Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS11:00pm CT
#8 ALA
Alabama Crimson Tide · SEC · 3-0 · Away
FPI 22.3 · rank 7 · No CFBD row
-3 (-115)
-155
#24 MSST
Mississippi State Bulldogs · SEC · 3-0 · Home
FPI 14.1 · rank 22 · No CFBD row
+3 (-105)
+130

Market vs model

Spread
ALA -3
MSST +3 (-105)
ALA -3 (-115)
Model
ALA -5.7
Edge 2.7 pts ALA
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ALA
MSST +130 · ALA -155
Total 58.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • MSST rating 14.1, ALA rating 22.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to MSST.
  • Predicted margin is ALA by 5.7.
  • Edge is 2.7 points toward ALA.
  • Edge 2.7 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap -8.2; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline ticket is ALA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

ALA

FPI 22.3 · rank 7 · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs FSU 50-36 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. W@ UK 45-17 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs ECU 48-10 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs IU 38-3 · Thu, Jan 1
  5. W@ OU 34-24 · Fri, Dec 19

MSST

FPI 14.1 · rank 22 · No CFBD row

  1. W@ SC 41-34 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. W@ MINN 38-13 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs ULM 62-13 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs WAKE 43-29 · Fri, Jan 2
  5. Lvs MISS 38-19 · Fri, Nov 28

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

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