Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Oct 3 · 2:30pm CT · Neyland Stadium · Knoxville, TN2:30pm CT
AUB
Auburn Tigers · SEC · 2-1 · Away
FPI 12.9 · rank 24 · No CFBD row
+7.5 (-110)
+230
#14 TENN
Tennessee Volunteers · SEC · 3-0 · Home
FPI 18.5 · rank 10 · No CFBD row
-7.5 (-110)
-285
Market vs model
Spread
TENN -7.5
TENN -7.5 (-110)
AUB +7.5 (-110)
AUB +7.5 (-110)
Model
TENN -8.1
Edge 0.6 pts TENN
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
TENN
TENN -285 · AUB +230
Total 57.5 — no O/U pick
Total 57.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- TENN rating 18.5, AUB rating 12.9.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to TENN.
- Predicted margin is TENN by 8.1.
- Edge is 0.6 points toward TENN.
- Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5.6; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is TENN, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
AUB
- Lvs FLA 44-39 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs USM 43-8 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs BAY 17-16 · Sat, Sep 5
- Lvs ALA 27-20 · Sat, Nov 29
- Wvs MER 62-17 · Sat, Nov 22
TENN
- Wvs KENN 42-9 · Sat, Sep 19
- W@ GT 45-24 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs FUR 56-9 · Sat, Sep 5
- Lvs ILL 30-28 · Tue, Dec 30
- Lvs VAN 45-24 · Sat, Nov 29
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5.6; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.