Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Fri, Oct 16 · 11:00pm CT · Neyland Stadium · Knoxville, TN11:00pm CT
#8 ALA
Alabama Crimson Tide · SEC · 3-0 · Away
FPI 22.3 · rank 7 · No CFBD row
-1.5 (-110)
-120
#14 TENN
Tennessee Volunteers · SEC · 3-0 · Home
FPI 18.5 · rank 10 · No CFBD row
+1.5 (-110)
+100

Market vs model

Spread
ALA -1.5
TENN +1.5 (-110)
ALA -1.5 (-110)
Model
ALA -1.3
Edge 0.2 pts TENN
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
Pass
TENN +100 · ALA -120
Total 56.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • TENN rating 18.5, ALA rating 22.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to TENN.
  • Predicted margin is ALA by 1.3.
  • Edge is 0.2 points toward TENN.
  • Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.8; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

ALA

FPI 22.3 · rank 7 · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs FSU 50-36 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. W@ UK 45-17 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs ECU 48-10 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs IU 38-3 · Thu, Jan 1
  5. W@ OU 34-24 · Fri, Dec 19

TENN

FPI 18.5 · rank 10 · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs KENN 42-9 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. W@ GT 45-24 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs FUR 56-9 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs ILL 30-28 · Tue, Dec 30
  5. Lvs VAN 45-24 · Sat, Nov 29

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.8; home field +2.5).

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.