Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Nov 27 · 2:30pm CT · Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FL · ABC2:30pm CT
#21 FLA
Florida Gators · SEC · 3-0 · Away
FPI 16.4 · rank 16 · No CFBD row
-4.5 (-105)
-205
FSU
Florida State Seminoles · ACC · 1-2 · Home
FPI 7.8 · rank 39 · No CFBD row
+4.5 (-115)
+170
Market vs model
Spread
FLA -4.5
FSU +4.5 (-115)
FLA -4.5 (-105)
FLA -4.5 (-105)
Model
FLA -6.1
Edge 1.6 pts FLA
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
FLA
FSU +170 · FLA -205
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- FSU rating 7.8, FLA rating 16.4.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to FSU.
- Predicted margin is FLA by 6.1.
- Edge is 1.6 points toward FLA.
- Edge 1.6 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap -8.6; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is FLA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
FLA
- W@ AUB 44-39 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs CAM 52-3 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs FAU 66-21 · Sat, Sep 5
- Wvs FSU 40-21 · Sat, Nov 29
- Lvs TENN 31-11 · Sat, Nov 22
FSU
- L@ ALA 50-36 · Sat, Sep 19
- Lvs SMU 27-24 · Mon, Sep 7
- Wvs NMSU 34-17 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ FLA 40-21 · Sat, Nov 29
- L@ NCSU 21-11 · Fri, Nov 21
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.