Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

← The board
Fri, Nov 27 · 11:00pm CT · FirstBank Stadium · Nashville, TN11:00pm CT
#14 TENN
Tennessee Volunteers · SEC · 3-0 · Away
FPI 18.5 · rank 10 · No CFBD row
-3 (-110)
-162
VAN
Vanderbilt Commodores · SEC · 3-0 · Home
FPI 6.1 · rank 43 · No CFBD row
+3 (-110)
+136

Market vs model

Spread
TENN -3
VAN +3 (-110)
TENN -3 (-110)
Model
TENN -9.9
Edge 6.9 pts TENN
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
TENN
VAN +136 · TENN -162
Total 57.5 — no O/U pick
CallStrong

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • VAN rating 6.1, TENN rating 18.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to VAN.
  • Predicted margin is TENN by 9.9.
  • Edge is 6.9 points toward TENN.
  • Edge 6.9 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap -12.4; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline ticket is TENN, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

TENN

FPI 18.5 · rank 10 · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs KENN 42-9 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. W@ GT 45-24 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs FUR 56-9 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs ILL 30-28 · Tue, Dec 30
  5. Lvs VAN 45-24 · Sat, Nov 29

VAN

FPI 6.1 · rank 43 · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs NCSU 35-31 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. Wvs DEL 35-26 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs APSU 28-9 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs IOWA 34-27 · Wed, Dec 31
  5. W@ TENN 45-24 · Sat, Nov 29

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.