Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 8:30pm CT · Casino Del Sol Stadium · Tucson, AZ · ESPN+Final
NAU
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks · 1-1 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+33.5 (-108)
+2200
ARIZ
Arizona Wildcats · Big 12 · 1-0 · Home
FPI 5.9 · rank 45 · No CFBD row
-33.5 (-112)
-8000
Market vs model
Spread
ARIZ -33.5
ARIZ -33.5 (-112)
NAU +33.5 (-108)
NAU +33.5 (-108)
Model
ARIZ -20.4
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ARIZ
ARIZ -8000 · NAU +2200
Total 59.5 — no O/U pick
Total 59.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- ARIZ rating 5.9, NAU rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to ARIZ.
- Predicted margin is ARIZ by 20.4.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 20.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap 17.9; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is ARIZ, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
NAU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
ARIZ
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 20.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap 17.9; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.