Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00pm CT · Jack Trice Stadium · Ames, IA · ESPN+Final
SEMO
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks · 1-1 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+29.5 (-102)
+2500
ISU
Iowa State Cyclones · Big 12 · 1-0 · Home
FPI 4.4 · rank 55 · No CFBD row
-29.5 (-118)
-9000
Market vs model
Spread
ISU -29.5
ISU -29.5 (-118)
SEMO +29.5 (-102)
SEMO +29.5 (-102)
Model
ISU -18.9
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ISU
ISU -9000 · SEMO +2500
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- ISU rating 4.4, SEMO rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to ISU.
- Predicted margin is ISU by 18.9.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 18.9. No market line yet. (Rating gap 16.4; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is ISU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
SEMO
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
ISU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 18.9. No market line yet. (Rating gap 16.4; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.