Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00pm CT · TDECU Stadium · Houston, TX · ESPN+Final
SOU
Southern Jaguars · 1-2 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+51.5 (-102)
—
#25 HOU
Houston Cougars · Big 12 · 2-0 · Home
FPI 10.8 · rank 31 · No CFBD row
-51.5 (-118)
—
Market vs model
Spread
HOU -51.5
HOU -51.5 (-118)
SOU +51.5 (-102)
SOU +51.5 (-102)
Model
HOU -25.3
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
HOU
HOU — · SOU —
Total 61.5 — no O/U pick
Total 61.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- HOU rating 10.8, SOU rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to HOU.
- Predicted margin is HOU by 25.3.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 25.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap 22.8; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is HOU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
SOU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
HOU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 25.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap 22.8; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.