Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:30pm CT · Kinnick Stadium · Iowa City, IA · NBCFinal
ISU
Iowa State Cyclones · Big 12 · 1-1 · Away
FPI 4.4 · rank 55 · No CFBD row
+14 (-112)
+470
#17 IOWA
Iowa Hawkeyes · Big Ten · 2-0 · Home
FPI 12.1 · rank 28 · No CFBD row
-14 (-108)
-650
Market vs model
Spread
IOWA -14
IOWA -14 (-108)
ISU +14 (-112)
ISU +14 (-112)
Model
IOWA -10.2
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
IOWA
IOWA -650 · ISU +470
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- IOWA rating 12.1, ISU rating 4.4.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to IOWA.
- Predicted margin is IOWA by 10.2.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 10.2. No market line yet. (Rating gap 7.7; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is IOWA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
ISU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
IOWA
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 10.2. No market line yet. (Rating gap 7.7; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.