Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00am CT · Jack Trice Stadium · Ames, IA · ESPNUFinal
BGSU
Bowling Green Falcons · MAC · 0-3 · Away
FPI -23.2 · rank 136 · No CFBD row
+22.5 (-108)
+1100
ISU
Iowa State Cyclones · Big 12 · 2-1 · Home
FPI 4.4 · rank 55 · No CFBD row
-22.5 (-112)
-2100
Market vs model
Spread
ISU -22.5
ISU -22.5 (-112)
BGSU +22.5 (-108)
BGSU +22.5 (-108)
Model
ISU -30.1
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ISU
ISU -2100 · BGSU +1100
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- ISU rating 4.4, BGSU rating -23.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to ISU.
- Predicted margin is ISU by 30.1.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 30.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 27.6; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is ISU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
BGSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
ISU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 30.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 27.6; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.