Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00pm CT · Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth, TX · ESPNUFinal
ARST
Arkansas State Red Wolves · Sun Belt · 1-2 · Away
FPI -10.2 · rank 111 · No CFBD row
+18.5 (-105)
+750
TCU
TCU Horned Frogs · Big 12 · 2-1 · Home
FPI 7.2 · rank 41 · No CFBD row
-18.5 (-115)
-1200
Market vs model
Spread
TCU -18.5
TCU -18.5 (-115)
ARST +18.5 (-105)
ARST +18.5 (-105)
Model
TCU -19.9
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
TCU
TCU -1200 · ARST +750
Total 56.5 — no O/U pick
Total 56.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- TCU rating 7.2, ARST rating -10.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to TCU.
- Predicted margin is TCU by 19.9.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 19.9. No market line yet. (Rating gap 17.4; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is TCU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
ARST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
TCU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 19.9. No market line yet. (Rating gap 17.4; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.