Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Sep 26 · 11:00am CT · McLane Stadium · Waco, TX · ESPN211:00am CT
COLO
Colorado Buffaloes · Big 12 · 2-1 · Away
FPI -0.7 · rank 70 · No CFBD row
+10 (-108)
+310
BAY
Baylor Bears · Big 12 · 2-1 · Home
FPI 8.1 · rank 38 · No CFBD row
-10 (-112)
-395

Market vs model

Spread
BAY -10
BAY -10 (-112)
COLO +10 (-108)
Model
BAY -11.3
Edge 1.3 pts BAY
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
BAY
BAY -395 · COLO +310
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • BAY rating 8.1, COLO rating -0.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to BAY.
  • Predicted margin is BAY by 11.3.
  • Edge is 1.3 points toward BAY.
  • Edge 1.3 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 8.8; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline ticket is BAY, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

COLO

FPI -0.7 · rank 70 · No CFBD row

  1. L@ NU 41-7 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. Wvs WEB 52-21 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. W@ GT 14-13 · Thu, Sep 3
  4. L@ KSU 24-14 · Sat, Nov 29
  5. Lvs ASU 42-17 · Sat, Nov 22

BAY

FPI 8.1 · rank 38 · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs LT 36-19 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. Wvs PV 44-3 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Lvs AUB 17-16 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs HOU 31-24 · Sat, Nov 29
  5. L@ ARIZ 41-17 · Sat, Nov 22

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Edge 1.3 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 8.8; home field +2.5).

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML