Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Mon, Sep 7 · 6:30pm CT · Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FL · ESPNFinal
#22 SMU
SMU Mustangs · ACC · 1-0 · Away
FPI 12.2 · rank 26 · No CFBD row
-3 (-115)
-155
FSU
Florida State Seminoles · ACC · 1-1 · Home
FPI 7.8 · rank 39 · No CFBD row
+3 (-105)
+130

Market vs model

Spread
SMU -3
FSU +3 (-105)
SMU -3 (-115)
Model
SMU -1.9
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
Pass
FSU +130 · SMU -155
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • FSU rating 7.8, SMU rating 12.2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to FSU.
  • Predicted margin is SMU by 1.9.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model away 1.9. No market line yet. (Rating gap -4.4; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

SMU

FPI 12.2 · rank 26 · No CFBD row

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

FSU

FPI 7.8 · rank 39 · No CFBD row

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Model away 1.9. No market line yet. (Rating gap -4.4; home field +2.5).

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.