Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 11:00am CT · Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC · ACCNXFinal
ETSU
East Tennessee State Buccaneers · 1-2 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+36.5 (-112)
+5000
UNC
North Carolina Tar Heels · ACC · 2-0 · Home
FPI 4.9 · rank 51 · No CFBD row
-36.5 (-108)
-100000
Market vs model
Spread
UNC -36.5
UNC -36.5 (-108)
ETSU +36.5 (-112)
ETSU +36.5 (-112)
Model
UNC -19.4
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
UNC
UNC -100000 · ETSU +5000
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- UNC rating 4.9, ETSU rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to UNC.
- Predicted margin is UNC by 19.4.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 19.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap 16.9; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is UNC, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
ETSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
UNC
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 19.4. No market line yet. (Rating gap 16.9; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.