Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Sep 11 · 6:00pm CT · Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh, NC · ESPNUFinal
RICH
Richmond Spiders · 2-1 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+33.5 (-108)
+2000
NCSU
NC State Wolfpack · ACC · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2 · rank 61 · No CFBD row
-33.5 (-112)
-6500
Market vs model
Spread
NCSU -33.5
NCSU -33.5 (-112)
RICH +33.5 (-108)
RICH +33.5 (-108)
Model
NCSU -16.5
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
NCSU
NCSU -6500 · RICH +2000
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- NCSU rating 2, RICH rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to NCSU.
- Predicted margin is NCSU by 16.5.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 16.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 14; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is NCSU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
RICH
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
NCSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 16.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 14; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.