Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 3:00pm CT · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas, TX · ACCNXFinal
UCD
UC Davis Aggies · 2-1 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+32.5 (-112)
+1400
#22 SMU
SMU Mustangs · ACC · 2-0 · Home
FPI 12.2 · rank 26 · No CFBD row
-32.5 (-108)
-3200
Market vs model
Spread
SMU -32.5
SMU -32.5 (-108)
UCD +32.5 (-112)
UCD +32.5 (-112)
Model
SMU -26.7
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
SMU
SMU -3200 · UCD +1400
Total 59.5 — no O/U pick
Total 59.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- SMU rating 12.2, UCD rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to SMU.
- Predicted margin is SMU by 26.7.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 26.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap 24.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is SMU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
UCD
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
SMU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 26.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap 24.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.