Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 26 · 2:00pm CT · Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FL · ACC Network2:00pm CT
CARK
Central Arkansas Bears · 2-2 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+44.5 (-115)
—
FSU
Florida State Seminoles · ACC · 1-2 · Home
FPI 7.8 · rank 39 · No CFBD row
-44.5 (-105)
—
Market vs model
Spread
FSU -44.5
FSU -44.5 (-105)
CARK +44.5 (-115)
CARK +44.5 (-115)
Model
FSU -22.3
Edge 22.2 pts CARK
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
FSU
FSU — · CARK —
Total 60.5 — no O/U pick
Total 60.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- FSU rating 7.8, CARK rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to FSU.
- Predicted margin is FSU by 22.3.
- Edge is 22.2 points toward CARK.
- Model number is on the board, but one rating is imputed — no ATS ticket. (Rating gap 19.8; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is FSU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
CARK
- L@ SEMO 27-9 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs CENO 59-20 · Sat, Sep 12
- Lvs UWF 42-14 · Sat, Sep 5
- W@ UTM 36-24 · Thu, Aug 27
- Lvs ACU 49-28 · Sat, Nov 22
FSU
- L@ ALA 50-36 · Sat, Sep 19
- Lvs SMU 27-24 · Mon, Sep 7
- Wvs NMSU 34-17 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ FLA 40-21 · Sat, Nov 29
- L@ NCSU 21-11 · Fri, Nov 21
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model number is on the board, but one rating is imputed — no ATS ticket. (Rating gap 19.8; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.