Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 26 · 8:00pm CT · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas, TX · ACC Network8:00pm CT
MOST
Missouri State Bears · C-USA · 1-2 · Away
FPI -13.5 · rank 121 · No CFBD row
+34.5 (-115)
+4000
#22 SMU
SMU Mustangs · ACC · 2-1 · Home
FPI 12.2 · rank 26 · No CFBD row
-34.5 (-105)
-50000
Market vs model
Spread
SMU -34.5
SMU -34.5 (-105)
MOST +34.5 (-115)
MOST +34.5 (-115)
Model
SMU -28.2
Edge 6.3 pts MOST
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
SMU
SMU -50000 · MOST +4000
Total 59.5 — no O/U pick
Total 59.5 — no O/U pick
CallStrong
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- SMU rating 12.2, MOST rating -13.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to SMU.
- Predicted margin is SMU by 28.2.
- Edge is 6.3 points toward MOST.
- Edge 6.3 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 25.7; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is SMU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
MOST
- Lvs MRSH 30-24 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs LIN 48-14 · Sat, Sep 12
- L@ TA&M 50-0 · Sat, Sep 5
- Lvs ARST 34-28 · Thu, Dec 18
- Lvs LT 42-30 · Sat, Nov 29
SMU
- L@ LOU 41-31 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs UCD 56-10 · Sat, Sep 12
- W@ FSU 27-24 · Mon, Sep 7
- Wvs ARIZ 24-19 · Fri, Jan 2
- L@ CAL 38-35 · Sat, Nov 29
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.