Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Oct 3 · 2:30pm CT · Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh, NC2:30pm CT
#16 LOU
Louisville Cardinals · ACC · 2-1 · Away
FPI 13.9 · rank 23 · No CFBD row
-7.5 (-110)
-305
NCSU
NC State Wolfpack · ACC · 1-2 · Home
FPI 2 · rank 61 · No CFBD row
+7.5 (-110)
+245
Market vs model
Spread
LOU -7.5
NCSU +7.5 (-110)
LOU -7.5 (-110)
LOU -7.5 (-110)
Model
LOU -9.3
Edge 1.8 pts LOU
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
LOU
NCSU +245 · LOU -305
Total 59.5 — no O/U pick
Total 59.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- NCSU rating 2, LOU rating 13.9.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to NCSU.
- Predicted margin is LOU by 9.3.
- Edge is 1.8 points toward LOU.
- Edge 1.8 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap -11.8; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is LOU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
LOU
- Wvs SMU 41-31 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs VILL 59-13 · Fri, Sep 11
- Lvs MISS 41-38 · Sun, Sep 6
- Wvs TOL 27-22 · Tue, Dec 23
- Wvs UK 41-0 · Sat, Nov 29
NCSU
- L@ VAN 35-31 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs RICH 73-0 · Fri, Sep 11
- L@ UVA 34-8 · Sat, Aug 29
- Wvs MEM 31-7 · Fri, Dec 19
- Wvs UNC 42-19 · Sat, Nov 29
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.