Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Oct 2 · 11:00pm CT · Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC11:00pm CT
#3 ND
Notre Dame Fighting Irish · Independents · 3-0 · Away
FPI 26.8 · rank 4 · No CFBD row
-20.5 (-110)
-1600
UNC
North Carolina Tar Heels · ACC · 2-1 · Home
FPI 4.9 · rank 51 · No CFBD row
+20.5 (-110)
+900
Market vs model
Spread
ND -20.5
UNC +20.5 (-110)
ND -20.5 (-110)
ND -20.5 (-110)
Model
ND -19.4
Edge 1.1 pts UNC
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ND
UNC +900 · ND -1600
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- UNC rating 4.9, ND rating 26.8.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to UNC.
- Predicted margin is ND by 19.4.
- Edge is 1.1 points toward UNC.
- Edge 1.1 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -21.9; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is ND, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
ND
- Wvs MSU 27-10 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs RICE 52-0 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs WIS 41-13 · Sun, Sep 6
- W@ STAN 49-20 · Sat, Nov 29
- Wvs SYR 70-7 · Sat, Nov 22
UNC
- L@ CLEM 28-20 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs ETSU 35-3 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs TCU 15-10 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ NCSU 42-19 · Sat, Nov 29
- Lvs DUKE 32-25 · Sat, Nov 22
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Edge 1.1 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -21.9; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.