Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Oct 16 · 11:00pm CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL11:00pm CT
FSU
Florida State Seminoles · ACC · 1-2 · Away
FPI 7.8 · rank 39 · No CFBD row
+16.5 (-112)
+750
#6 MIA
Miami Hurricanes · ACC · 3-0 · Home
FPI 23.9 · rank 6 · No CFBD row
-16.5 (-108)
-1200
Market vs model
Spread
MIA -16.5
MIA -16.5 (-108)
FSU +16.5 (-112)
FSU +16.5 (-112)
Model
MIA -18.6
Edge 2.1 pts MIA
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
MIA
MIA -1200 · FSU +750
Total 53.5 — no O/U pick
Total 53.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- MIA rating 23.9, FSU rating 7.8.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to MIA.
- Predicted margin is MIA by 18.6.
- Edge is 2.1 points toward MIA.
- Edge 2.1 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 16.1; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is MIA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
FSU
- L@ ALA 50-36 · Sat, Sep 19
- Lvs SMU 27-24 · Mon, Sep 7
- Wvs NMSU 34-17 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ FLA 40-21 · Sat, Nov 29
- L@ NCSU 21-11 · Fri, Nov 21
MIA
- W@ WAKE 33-20 · Fri, Sep 18
- Wvs FAMU 77-7 · Thu, Sep 10
- W@ STAN 45-6 · Fri, Sep 4
- L@ IU 27-21 · Mon, Jan 19
- Wvs MISS 31-27 · Thu, Jan 8
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.