Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Oct 16 · 11:00pm CT · Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham, NC11:00pm CT
UNC
North Carolina Tar Heels · ACC · 2-1 · Away
FPI 4.9 · rank 51 · No CFBD row
+4.5 (-110)
+185
DUKE
Duke Blue Devils · ACC · 3-0 · Home
FPI 9.1 · rank 35 · No CFBD row
-4.5 (-110)
-225
Market vs model
Spread
DUKE -4.5
DUKE -4.5 (-110)
UNC +4.5 (-110)
UNC +4.5 (-110)
Model
DUKE -6.7
Edge 2.2 pts DUKE
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
DUKE
DUKE -225 · UNC +185
Total 54.5 — no O/U pick
Total 54.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- DUKE rating 9.1, UNC rating 4.9.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to DUKE.
- Predicted margin is DUKE by 6.7.
- Edge is 2.2 points toward DUKE.
- Edge 2.2 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 4.2; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is DUKE, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
UNC
- L@ CLEM 28-20 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs ETSU 35-3 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs TCU 15-10 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ NCSU 42-19 · Sat, Nov 29
- Lvs DUKE 32-25 · Sat, Nov 22
DUKE
- Wvs STAN 35-7 · Sat, Sep 19
- W@ ILL 31-27 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs TULN 17-3 · Sat, Sep 5
- Wvs ASU 42-39 · Wed, Dec 31
- Wvs UVA 27-20 OT · Sat, Dec 6
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.