Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Oct 16 · 11:00pm CT · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas, TX11:00pm CT
UVA
Virginia Cavaliers · ACC · 2-1 · Away
FPI 9.2 · rank 34 · No CFBD row
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#22 SMU
SMU Mustangs · ACC · 2-1 · Home
FPI 12.2 · rank 26 · No CFBD row
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Market vs model
Spread
—
SMU —
UVA —
UVA —
Model
SMU -5.5
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
SMU
SMU — · UVA —
Total — — no O/U pick
Total — — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- SMU rating 12.2, UVA rating 9.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to SMU.
- Predicted margin is SMU by 5.5.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 5.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 3; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is SMU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
UVA
- Lvs WVU 38-27 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs NORF 59-3 · Fri, Sep 11
- Wvs NCSU 34-8 · Sat, Aug 29
- Wvs MIZ 13-7 · Sat, Dec 27
- Lvs DUKE 27-20 OT · Sat, Dec 6
SMU
- L@ LOU 41-31 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs UCD 56-10 · Sat, Sep 12
- W@ FSU 27-24 · Mon, Sep 7
- Wvs ARIZ 24-19 · Fri, Jan 2
- L@ CAL 38-35 · Sat, Nov 29
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 5.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 3; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.