Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Nov 21 · 6:30pm CT · Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame, IN · NBC6:30pm CT
#22 SMU
SMU Mustangs · ACC · 2-1 · Away
FPI 12.2 · rank 26 · No CFBD row
+17.5 (-105)
+750
#3 ND
Notre Dame Fighting Irish · Independents · 3-0 · Home
FPI 26.8 · rank 4 · No CFBD row
-17.5 (-115)
-1200
Market vs model
Spread
ND -17.5
ND -17.5 (-115)
SMU +17.5 (-105)
SMU +17.5 (-105)
Model
ND -17.1
Edge 0.4 pts SMU
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ND
ND -1200 · SMU +750
Total 56.5 — no O/U pick
Total 56.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- ND rating 26.8, SMU rating 12.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to ND.
- Predicted margin is ND by 17.1.
- Edge is 0.4 points toward SMU.
- Edge 0.4 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 14.6; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is ND, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
SMU
- L@ LOU 41-31 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs UCD 56-10 · Sat, Sep 12
- W@ FSU 27-24 · Mon, Sep 7
- Wvs ARIZ 24-19 · Fri, Jan 2
- L@ CAL 38-35 · Sat, Nov 29
ND
- Wvs MSU 27-10 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs RICE 52-0 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs WIS 41-13 · Sun, Sep 6
- W@ STAN 49-20 · Sat, Nov 29
- Wvs SYR 70-7 · Sat, Nov 22
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Edge 0.4 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 14.6; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.