Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Nov 27 · 11:00pm CT · Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC11:00pm CT
NCSU
NC State Wolfpack · ACC · 1-2 · Away
FPI 2 · rank 61 · No CFBD row
-1.5 (-108)
-118
UNC
North Carolina Tar Heels · ACC · 2-1 · Home
FPI 4.9 · rank 51 · No CFBD row
+1.5 (-112)
-102
Market vs model
Spread
NCSU -1.5
UNC +1.5 (-112)
NCSU -1.5 (-108)
NCSU -1.5 (-108)
Model
UNC -5.4
Edge 6.9 pts UNC
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
UNC
UNC -102 · NCSU -118
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
Total 55.5 — no O/U pick
CallStrong
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- UNC rating 4.9, NCSU rating 2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to UNC.
- Predicted margin is UNC by 5.4.
- Edge is 6.9 points toward UNC.
- Edge 6.9 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 2.9; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is UNC, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
NCSU
- L@ VAN 35-31 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs RICH 73-0 · Fri, Sep 11
- L@ UVA 34-8 · Sat, Aug 29
- Wvs MEM 31-7 · Fri, Dec 19
- Wvs UNC 42-19 · Sat, Nov 29
UNC
- L@ CLEM 28-20 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs ETSU 35-3 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs TCU 15-10 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ NCSU 42-19 · Sat, Nov 29
- Lvs DUKE 32-25 · Sat, Nov 22
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.