Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:15pm CT · Kinnick Stadium · Iowa City, IA · BTNFinal
NIU
Northern Illinois Huskies · Mountain West · 0-1 · Away
FPI -17 · rank 129 · No CFBD row
+31.5 (-115)
+3000
#17 IOWA
Iowa Hawkeyes · Big Ten · 1-0 · Home
FPI 12.1 · rank 28 · No CFBD row
-31.5 (-105)
-10000
Market vs model
Spread
IOWA -31.5
IOWA -31.5 (-105)
NIU +31.5 (-115)
NIU +31.5 (-115)
Model
IOWA -31.6
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
IOWA
IOWA -10000 · NIU +3000
Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- IOWA rating 12.1, NIU rating -17.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to IOWA.
- Predicted margin is IOWA by 31.6.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 31.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap 29.1; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is IOWA, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
NIU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
IOWA
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 31.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap 29.1; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.