Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00pm CT · Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium · Evanston, IL · BTNFinal
SDST
South Dakota State Jackrabbits · 1-1 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+14 (-120)
+400
NU
Northwestern Wildcats · Big Ten · 1-0 · Home
FPI 9.3 · rank 33 · No CFBD row
-14 (+100)
-535
Market vs model
Spread
NU -14
NU -14 (+100)
SDST +14 (-120)
SDST +14 (-120)
Model
NU -23.8
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
NU
NU -535 · SDST +400
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- NU rating 9.3, SDST rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to NU.
- Predicted margin is NU by 23.8.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 23.8. No market line yet. (Rating gap 21.3; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is NU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
SDST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
NU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 23.8. No market line yet. (Rating gap 21.3; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.