Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 2:30pm CT · Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA · FS1Final
MRSH
Marshall Thundering Herd · Sun Belt · 0-1 · Away
FPI -11.9 · rank 117 · No CFBD row
+23.5 (-112)
+1100
#13 PSU
Penn State Nittany Lions · Big Ten · 1-0 · Home
FPI 18.2 · rank 12 · No CFBD row
-23.5 (-108)
-2100
Market vs model
Spread
PSU -23.5
PSU -23.5 (-108)
MRSH +23.5 (-112)
MRSH +23.5 (-112)
Model
PSU -32.6
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
PSU
PSU -2100 · MRSH +1100
Total 53.5 — no O/U pick
Total 53.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- PSU rating 18.2, MRSH rating -11.9.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to PSU.
- Predicted margin is PSU by 32.6.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 32.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap 30.1; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is PSU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
MRSH
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
PSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 32.6. No market line yet. (Rating gap 30.1; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.