Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Sep 4 · 8:00pm CT · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles, CA · FOXFinal
FRES
Fresno State Bulldogs · Pac-12 · 0-1 · Away
FPI -0.5 · rank 69 · No CFBD row
+21.5 (-108)
+1100
#12 USC
USC Trojans · Big Ten · 2-0 · Home
FPI 15.5 · rank 18 · No CFBD row
-21.5 (-112)
-2100
Market vs model
Spread
USC -21.5
USC -21.5 (-112)
FRES +21.5 (-108)
FRES +21.5 (-108)
Model
USC -18.5
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
USC
USC -2100 · FRES +1100
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- USC rating 15.5, FRES rating -0.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to USC.
- Predicted margin is USC by 18.5.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 18.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 16; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is USC, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
FRES
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
USC
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 18.5. No market line yet. (Rating gap 16; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.