Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00pm CT · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · Lincoln, NE · FS1Final
BGSU
Bowling Green Falcons · MAC · 0-2 · Away
FPI -23.2 · rank 136 · No CFBD row
+30.5 (-105)
+2500
NEB
Nebraska Cornhuskers · Big Ten · 2-0 · Home
FPI 14.2 · rank 21 · No CFBD row
-30.5 (-115)
-9000
Market vs model
Spread
NEB -30.5
NEB -30.5 (-115)
BGSU +30.5 (-105)
BGSU +30.5 (-105)
Model
NEB -39.9
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
NEB
NEB -9000 · BGSU +2500
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- NEB rating 14.2, BGSU rating -23.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to NEB.
- Predicted margin is NEB by 39.9.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 39.9. No market line yet. (Rating gap 37.4; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is NEB, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
BGSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
NEB
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 39.9. No market line yet. (Rating gap 37.4; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.