Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 19 · 6:30pm CT · Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame, IN · NBCFinal
MSU
Michigan State Spartans · Big Ten · 2-1 · Away
FPI 4.2 · rank 56 · No CFBD row
+28.5 (-108)
+1500
#3 ND
Notre Dame Fighting Irish · Independents · 3-0 · Home
FPI 26.8 · rank 4 · No CFBD row
-28.5 (-112)
-3600
Market vs model
Spread
ND -28.5
ND -28.5 (-112)
MSU +28.5 (-108)
MSU +28.5 (-108)
Model
ND -25.1
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
ND
ND -3600 · MSU +1500
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- ND rating 26.8, MSU rating 4.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to ND.
- Predicted margin is ND by 25.1.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 25.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 22.6; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is ND, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
MSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
ND
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 25.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 22.6; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.