Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00am CT · Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA · BTNFinal
BUFF
Buffalo Bulls · MAC · 1-2 · Away
FPI -16.6 · rank 128 · No CFBD row
+39.5 (-112)
—
#13 PSU
Penn State Nittany Lions · Big Ten · 3-0 · Home
FPI 18.2 · rank 12 · No CFBD row
-39.5 (-108)
—
Market vs model
Spread
PSU -39.5
PSU -39.5 (-108)
BUFF +39.5 (-112)
BUFF +39.5 (-112)
Model
PSU -37.3
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
PSU
PSU — · BUFF —
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- PSU rating 18.2, BUFF rating -16.6.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to PSU.
- Predicted margin is PSU by 37.3.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 37.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap 34.8; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is PSU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
BUFF
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
PSU
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 37.3. No market line yet. (Rating gap 34.8; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.