Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Fri, Oct 2 · 7:00pm CT · Ryan Field · Evanston, IL · FOX7:00pm CT
#13 PSU
Penn State Nittany Lions · Big Ten · 3-0 · Away
FPI 18.2 · rank 12 · No CFBD row
-7 (-110)
-278
NU
Northwestern Wildcats · Big Ten · 2-0 · Home
FPI 9.3 · rank 33 · No CFBD row
+7 (-110)
+225

Market vs model

Spread
PSU -7
NU +7 (-110)
PSU -7 (-110)
Model
PSU -6.4
Edge 0.6 pts NU
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
PSU
NU +225 · PSU -278
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • NU rating 9.3, PSU rating 18.2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to NU.
  • Predicted margin is PSU by 6.4.
  • Edge is 0.6 points toward NU.
  • Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -8.9; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline ticket is PSU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

PSU

FPI 18.2 · rank 12 · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs BUFF 55-13 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. W@ TEM 27-9 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs MRSH 45-0 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Wvs CLEM 22-10 · Sat, Dec 27
  5. W@ RUTG 40-36 · Sat, Nov 29

NU

FPI 9.3 · rank 33 · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs COLO 41-7 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. Wvs SDST 34-18 · Sat, Sep 5
  3. Wvs CMU 34-7 · Fri, Dec 26
  4. L@ ILL 20-13 · Sat, Nov 29
  5. Wvs MINN 38-35 · Sat, Nov 22

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -8.9; home field +2.5).

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML