Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Oct 9 · 11:00pm CT · Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA11:00pm CT
#12 USC
USC Trojans · Big Ten · 4-0 · Away
FPI 15.5 · rank 18 · No CFBD row
+1.5 (-108)
+105
#13 PSU
Penn State Nittany Lions · Big Ten · 3-0 · Home
FPI 18.2 · rank 12 · No CFBD row
-1.5 (-112)
-125
Market vs model
Spread
PSU -1.5
PSU -1.5 (-112)
USC +1.5 (-108)
USC +1.5 (-108)
Model
PSU -5.2
Edge 3.7 pts PSU
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
PSU
PSU -125 · USC +105
Total 56.5 — no O/U pick
Total 56.5 — no O/U pick
CallPlay
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- PSU rating 18.2, USC rating 15.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to PSU.
- Predicted margin is PSU by 5.2.
- Edge is 3.7 points toward PSU.
- Edge 3.7 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 2.7; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is PSU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
USC
- W@ RUTG 42-35 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs UL 49-30 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs FRES 39-0 · Fri, Sep 4
- Wvs SJSU 42-26 · Sat, Aug 29
- Lvs TCU 30-27 OT · Tue, Dec 30
PSU
- Wvs BUFF 55-13 · Sat, Sep 19
- W@ TEM 27-9 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs MRSH 45-0 · Sat, Sep 5
- Wvs CLEM 22-10 · Sat, Dec 27
- W@ RUTG 40-36 · Sat, Nov 29
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.