Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Fri, Nov 6 · 11:00pm CT · Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor, MI11:00pm CT
MSU
Michigan State Spartans · Big Ten · 2-1 · Away
FPI 4.2 · rank 56 · No CFBD row
+16.5 (-112)
+625
#18 MICH
Michigan Wolverines · Big Ten · 3-0 · Home
FPI 14.9 · rank 20 · No CFBD row
-16.5 (-108)
-950
Market vs model
Spread
MICH -16.5
MICH -16.5 (-108)
MSU +16.5 (-112)
MSU +16.5 (-112)
Model
MICH -13.1
Edge 3.3 pts MSU
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
MICH
MICH -950 · MSU +625
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
CallPlay
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- MICH rating 14.9, MSU rating 4.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to MICH.
- Predicted margin is MICH by 13.2.
- Edge is 3.4 points toward MSU.
- Edge 3.4 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 10.7; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is MICH, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
MSU
- L@ ND 27-10 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs EMU 35-7 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs TOL 30-20 · Fri, Sep 4
- Wvs MD 38-28 · Sat, Nov 29
- L@ IOWA 20-17 · Sat, Nov 22
MICH
- Wvs UTEP 52-17 · Sat, Sep 19
- Wvs OU 17-10 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs WMU 13-12 · Sat, Sep 5
- Lvs TEX 41-27 · Wed, Dec 31
- Lvs OSU 27-9 · Sat, Nov 29
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.