Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 12 · 2:30pm CT · UFCU Stadium · San Marcos, TX · CWFinal
UTSA
UTSA Roadrunners · American · 2-0 · Away
FPI -1.7 · rank 76 · No CFBD row
+1.5 (-108)
+102
TXST
Texas State Bobcats · Pac-12 · 0-2 · Home
FPI -4.9 · rank 86 · No CFBD row
-1.5 (-112)
-122
Market vs model
Spread
TXST -1.5
TXST -1.5 (-112)
UTSA +1.5 (-108)
UTSA +1.5 (-108)
Model
UTSA -0.7
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
Pass
TXST -122 · UTSA +102
Total 65.5 — no O/U pick
Total 65.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- TXST rating -4.9, UTSA rating -1.7.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to TXST.
- Predicted margin is UTSA by 0.7.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model away 0.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap -3.2; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
UTSA
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
TXST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model away 0.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap -3.2; home field +2.5).
No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.