Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00am CT · UFCU Stadium · San Marcos, TX · USA NetFinal
UNT
North Texas Mean Green · American · 1-2 · Away
FPI -2.3 · rank 79 · No CFBD row
+3 (-102)
+136
TXST
Texas State Bobcats · Pac-12 · 1-2 · Home
FPI -4.9 · rank 86 · No CFBD row
-3 (-118)
-162

Market vs model

Spread
TXST -3
TXST -3 (-118)
UNT +3 (-102)
Model
UNT -0.1
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
Pass
TXST -162 · UNT +136
Total 62.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • TXST rating -4.9, UNT rating -2.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to TXST.
  • Predicted margin is UNT by 0.1.
  • There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
  • Model away 0.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap -2.6; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

UNT

FPI -2.3 · rank 79 · No CFBD row

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

TXST

FPI -4.9 · rank 86 · No CFBD row

ESPN did not send a recent-form list.

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Model away 0.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap -2.6; home field +2.5).

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.