Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 26 · 5:00pm CT · UFCU Stadium · San Marcos, TX · USA Net5:00pm CT
UIW
Incarnate Word Cardinals · 2-1 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+29.5 (-110)
+1700
TXST
Texas State Bobcats · Pac-12 · 1-2 · Home
FPI -4.9 · rank 86 · No CFBD row
-29.5 (-110)
-4500
Market vs model
Spread
TXST -29.5
TXST -29.5 (-110)
UIW +29.5 (-110)
UIW +29.5 (-110)
Model
TXST -9.6
Edge 19.9 pts UIW
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
TXST
TXST -4500 · UIW +1700
Total 63.5 — no O/U pick
Total 63.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- TXST rating -4.9, UIW rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to TXST.
- Predicted margin is TXST by 9.6.
- Edge is 19.9 points toward UIW.
- Model number is on the board, but one rating is imputed — no ATS ticket. (Rating gap 7.1; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is TXST, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
UIW
- Wvs HCU 30-23 OT · Sat, Sep 19
- L@ NAU 38-28 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs OKL 76-14 · Sat, Aug 29
- W@ HCU 31-10 · Sat, Nov 22
- Lvs SELA 10-7 · Sat, Nov 15
TXST
- Wvs UNT 49-35 · Sat, Sep 19
- Lvs UTSA 31-26 · Sat, Sep 12
- L@ TEX 59-7 · Sat, Sep 5
- Wvs RICE 41-10 · Fri, Jan 2
- Wvs USA 49-26 · Sat, Nov 29
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model number is on the board, but one rating is imputed — no ATS ticket. (Rating gap 7.1; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.