Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Saturday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Sep 26 · 11:00am CT · Glass Bowl · Toledo, OH · CBSSN11:00am CT
SDSU
San Diego State Aztecs · Pac-12 · 1-2 · Away
FPI -3.3 · rank 81 · No CFBD row
+3 (-110)
+124
TOL
Toledo Rockets · MAC · 2-1 · Home
FPI -1.8 · rank 77 · No CFBD row
-3 (-110)
-148

Market vs model

Spread
TOL -3
TOL -3 (-110)
SDSU +3 (-110)
Model
TOL -4
Edge 1 pts TOL
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
TOL
TOL -148 · SDSU +124
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.

  • TOL rating -1.8, SDSU rating -3.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
  • Home field adds 2.5 to TOL.
  • Predicted margin is TOL by 4.
  • Edge is 1 points toward TOL.
  • Edge 1 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.5; home field +2.5).
  • Moneyline ticket is TOL, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.

Recent form

SDSU

FPI -3.3 · rank 81 · No CFBD row

  1. Lvs JMU 26-13 · Sat, Sep 19
  2. L@ UCLA 28-10 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. Wvs PRST 53-20 · Sat, Sep 5
  4. Lvs UNT 49-47 · Sat, Dec 27
  5. L@ UNM 23-17 2OT · Fri, Nov 28

TOL

FPI -1.8 · rank 77 · No CFBD row

  1. Wvs TEM 49-48 OT · Sat, Sep 19
  2. Wvs CCSU 63-10 · Sat, Sep 12
  3. L@ MSU 30-20 · Fri, Sep 4
  4. Lvs LOU 27-22 · Tue, Dec 23
  5. W@ CMU 21-3 · Sat, Nov 29

Injuries

no injury feed wired yet

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.

Edge 1 pts — inside the 1.5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.5; home field +2.5).

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML