Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Oct 3 · 9:30pm CT · Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego, CA · CW9:30pm CT
TXST
Texas State Bobcats · Pac-12 · 1-2 · Away
FPI -4.9 · rank 86 · No CFBD row
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SDSU
San Diego State Aztecs · Pac-12 · 1-2 · Home
FPI -3.3 · rank 81 · No CFBD row
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Market vs model
Spread
—
SDSU —
TXST —
TXST —
Model
SDSU -4.1
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
SDSU
SDSU — · TXST —
Total — — no O/U pick
Total — — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- SDSU rating -3.3, TXST rating -4.9.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to SDSU.
- Predicted margin is SDSU by 4.1.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 4.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 1.6; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is SDSU, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
TXST
- Wvs UNT 49-35 · Sat, Sep 19
- Lvs UTSA 31-26 · Sat, Sep 12
- L@ TEX 59-7 · Sat, Sep 5
- Wvs RICE 41-10 · Fri, Jan 2
- Wvs USA 49-26 · Sat, Nov 29
SDSU
- Lvs JMU 26-13 · Sat, Sep 19
- L@ UCLA 28-10 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs PRST 53-20 · Sat, Sep 5
- Lvs UNT 49-47 · Sat, Dec 27
- L@ UNM 23-17 2OT · Fri, Nov 28
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 4.1. No market line yet. (Rating gap 1.6; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.