Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 5 · 6:00pm CT · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis, TN · ESPN+Final
ARST
Arkansas State Red Wolves · Sun Belt · 0-1 · Away
FPI -10.2 · rank 111 · No CFBD row
+10.5 (-112)
+310
MEM
Memphis Tigers · American · 2-0 · Home
FPI -0.8 · rank 71 · No CFBD row
-10.5 (-108)
-395
Market vs model
Spread
MEM -10.5
MEM -10.5 (-108)
ARST +10.5 (-112)
ARST +10.5 (-112)
Model
MEM -11.9
Edge —
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
MEM
MEM -395 · ARST +310
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- MEM rating -0.8, ARST rating -10.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to MEM.
- Predicted margin is MEM by 11.9.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 11.9. No market line yet. (Rating gap 9.4; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is MEM, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
ARST
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
MEM
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 11.9. No market line yet. (Rating gap 9.4; home field +2.5).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.