Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 19 · 6:00pm CT · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis, TN · ESPN+Final
UTM
UT Martin Skyhawks · 1-3 · Away
No FPI row · No CFBD row
+33.5 (-110)
+1400
MEM
Memphis Tigers · American · 3-1 · Home
FPI -0.8 · rank 71 · No CFBD row
-33.5 (-110)
-3200
Market vs model
Spread
MEM -33.5
MEM -33.5 (-110)
UTM +33.5 (-110)
UTM +33.5 (-110)
Model
MEM -13.7
Edge —
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
Thin data
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
MEM
MEM -3200 · UTM +1400
Total 58.5 — no O/U pick
Total 58.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
ML win
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- MEM rating -0.8, UTM rating -12.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to MEM.
- Predicted margin is MEM by 13.7.
- There is no posted spread, so the edge is blank and there is no ATS ticket.
- Model home 13.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap 11.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
- Moneyline ticket is MEM, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
UTM
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
MEM
ESPN did not send a recent-form list.
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Model home 13.7. No market line yet. (Rating gap 11.2; home field +2.5; FCS placeholder -12).
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.