Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Saturday Slate
Sat, Sep 26 · 4:00pm CT · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green, OH · ESPN+4:00pm CT
USF
South Florida Bulls · American · 3-0 · Away
FPI 0.8 · rank 63 · No CFBD row
-17.5 (-110)
-1000
BGSU
Bowling Green Falcons · MAC · 0-3 · Home
FPI -23.2 · rank 136 · No CFBD row
+17.5 (-110)
+650
Market vs model
Spread
USF -17.5
BGSU +17.5 (-110)
USF -17.5 (-110)
USF -17.5 (-110)
Model
USF -21.5
Edge 4 pts USF
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
Full ratings
ESPN FPI only
ML / total
USF
BGSU +650 · USF -1000
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallPlay
Why
CFBD enrichment is off. No API key and no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only.
- BGSU rating -23.2, USF rating 0.8.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI only. CFBD enrichment is not in this number.
- Home field adds 2.5 to BGSU.
- Predicted margin is USF by 21.5.
- Edge is 4 points toward USF.
- Edge 4 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap -24; home field +2.5).
- Moneyline ticket is USF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals model — we do not guess over/unders.
Recent form
USF
- Wvs DSU 59-17 · Sat, Sep 19
- W@ ARMY 28-24 · Sat, Sep 12
- Wvs FIU 19-9 · Sat, Sep 5
- Lvs ODU 24-10 · Wed, Dec 17
- Wvs RICE 52-3 · Sat, Nov 29
BGSU
- L@ ISU 55-7 · Sat, Sep 19
- L@ NEB 56-7 · Sat, Sep 12
- Lvs TAR 20-13 · Sat, Sep 5
- W@ MASS 45-14 · Tue, Nov 25
- Lvs AKR 19-16 · Tue, Nov 18
Injuries
no injury feed wired yet
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 1.5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV stays empty until there is a closing number.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.